Why Oil‑Flow Estimates Through the Strait of Hormuz Differ So Widely
If you’ve been following the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, you’ve probably noticed something strange: different sources report wildly different numbers for how much oil is actually getting through. Some trackers show less than 1 million barrels per day, while major news outlets claim the strait is operating at 80% of pre‑war levels. Both can be true — and here’s why. 1. Different Data Sources Measure Different Things Oil‑flow estimates depend heavily on how the data is collected. There are three main methods: A. AIS‑Visible Tankers (“Bright Traffic”) These are ships broadcasting their location legally via AIS transponders. Many tankers turn AIS off to avoid detection. AIS‑only trackers therefore show very low flows (e.g., 0.4–1 million bpd). This is the strictest, most conservative measurement. B. Satellite‑Derived Crude‑Only Estimates Some analytics firms track only crude oil, not refined products. Crude flows recently measured around 4–5 million b...