Why Oil‑Flow Estimates Through the Strait of Hormuz Differ So Widely

If you’ve been following the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, you’ve probably noticed something strange: different sources report wildly different numbers for how much oil is actually getting through. 

Some trackers show less than 1 million barrels per day, while major news outlets claim the strait is operating at 80% of pre‑war levels. Both can be true — and here’s why. 

 1. Different Data Sources Measure Different Things Oil‑flow estimates depend heavily on how the data is collected. There are three main methods: A. AIS‑Visible Tankers (“Bright Traffic”) These are ships broadcasting their location legally via AIS transponders. Many tankers turn AIS off to avoid detection. AIS‑only trackers therefore show very low flows (e.g., 0.4–1 million bpd). This is the strictest, most conservative measurement. B. Satellite‑Derived Crude‑Only Estimates Some analytics firms track only crude oil, not refined products. Crude flows recently measured around 4–5 million bpd. This excludes gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined products. C. Full‑Spectrum “Total Liquids” (Kpler, Vortexa, etc.) This is what most media outlets use. It includes:  Crude oil Refined products Dark tankers Ship‑to‑ship transfers Gulf of Oman loadings Fujairah product exports Pipeline‑fed exports that bypass the strait but are counted as “regional flows” When you add all of these together, you get 13–14 million bpd, which is roughly 80% of the pre‑war baseline of ~17 million bpd. This is the source of the “80% is getting through” headlines. 

 2. Media Outlets Quote the Broadest Definition When CNBC, Middle East Eye, or Oil & Gas Middle East say “80% of pre‑war oil is flowing,” they are quoting total liquids, not just crude, and not just AIS‑visible tankers. This makes the strait appear mostly reopened even though: AIS traffic remains extremely low Refined product flows are still depressed Insurance and security conditions are far from normal Many tankers are operating dark or using indirect transfer routes In short: The 80% figure is the most optimistic measurement, not the strict Hormuz‑only number. 

 3. The Numbers Don’t Actually Conflict — They Measure Different Layers Think of Hormuz oil flows as three concentric circles: Inner circle: AIS‑visible crude tankers 0.4–1 million bpd (What you see on public ship‑tracking maps) Middle circle: Satellite‑verified crude flows 4–5 million bpd (Includes dark tankers and STS transfers) Outer circle: Total liquids (crude + products + bypass routes) 13–14 million bpd (The number media outlets quote) Each layer is larger because it includes more categories of oil movement. 

 4. So Who’s “Right”? All of them — they’re just measuring different things. Strict Hormuz crude traffic: extremely low Total regional oil exports: mostly recovered Media headlines: based on the broadest definition If your goal is to understand actual tanker movement through the strait, AIS and satellite numbers are the ones to watch. If your goal is to understand global oil supply, the total‑liquids number is more relevant. Bottom Line The reason numbers differ so much is simple: Some trackers measure only crude. Some measure only AIS‑visible ships. Others measure everything — crude, refined products, dark tankers, and regional bypass flows. That’s why one source can say “0.4 million barrels per day” and another can say “80% of pre‑war levels” — and both can be correct.